Sunday, November 11, 2007

Pakistan's Broken Army/Dinner with Iraqi Gov't

One of the reasons that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf cited for his revoking of civil liberties was the danger posed by Islamic extremists. While this is obviously self-serving cover for his own desire to hold onto power, Pakistan's pathetic failure against the Taliban/Al Qaeda cannot be ignored. We have indulged an unrealistic expectation that their military forces could be effective against the Taliban. Part of the problem is the condition of Pakistan's army.
  • At present, Pakistan's military forces are not capable of counterinsurgency. They have been trained for years for a conventional engagement with India and regard rural counterinsurgency with disdain. Additionally, some in the Pakistani high command see countering the Taliban as a strategic mistake, given the Taliban's historic role of countering Indian influence in Afghanistan.
  • Pakistani troops drawn from the border regions won't fight against their neighbors
  • Insurgents have succeeded in defeating the army on the moral/mental level. High casualties, kidnappings of soldiers, the shock of coming under terror attack, as well as heavy operational commitments (Pakistani equivalent of "stop-loss") have resulted in record numbers of desertions and surrender to insurgents.
  • Musharraf spends US military aid on building up conventional forces, not counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism.
  • Continuing support in some sectors of the Pakistani government for the Taliban militants the Pakistani government largely created to give them "strategic depth" in Afghanistan.
  • Lack of public support in the tribal regions for the Pakistani forces, due to incipient separatism and the Pakistani government's alternating policies of neglect/abuse of tribal territories.
Also, had dinner with some members of the Iraqi government on Friday night. Situation was still dire for them, but all in all a wonderful night. State Department translator (an Iraqi exile) did a great job.

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