"The Puppetmaster"

PurpleSlog has a post at Dreaming 5GW on the master figure(s) he believes will be behind future conflict:

"The Puppet Master 5GW is the small empowered group behind the scenes.

They use/discard/co-opt/create 4GW-ish orgs to further their own 5GW goals.

Targeted assassination may be used as a special skill of the small group) but it will be of the the type that appears to be Actor A attacked by Actor B (not the 5GW group), or of natural causes/accidents.

Usually, the Puppet Master 5GW will not employ direct kinetic tactics however.

The Puppet Master 5GW will look a bit like the classic conspiracy theory group, and I think that is where it starts.

The Puppet Master 5GW wants to achieve some effect (on their own or other states or groups) but need to maintain secrecy to avoid the power of 4GW/3GW/2GW groups. Any larger group would increase the chance of exposure and the cost of coordination.

Where it is different from the fictional portrayals, is that I think they will want to make many small actions instead of a big attention generating move. This will allow a bit of a feedback on the techniques used. Also, small actions will get noticed less and are easier to conceal.

They will be making a point of planting the seeds to foster conspiracy theory thinking in case somebody starts to notice them (deception/counter-surveillance skills will be a must).

This was the first concept of a 5GW group that I and others had.

In retrospect, I think this type of 5GW will be the hardest to execute and the least likely to succeed."

For those unfamiliar with the terminology, what Purpleslog is suggesting is a master actor that will operate behind the scenes, manipulating various insurgent/terrorist/mercenary groups, some of them of his own creation. These manipulations, usually small in nature, culminate in the gradual achievement of a given goal. The puppetmaster will be hidden behind layer of dummy organizations and deception. As mentioned before, some of those front organizations will be set up by him to act in a false-flag capacity, staffed by either trained agents or unwilling dupes. In essence, (as Purpleslog notes), this is the classic conspiracy theory set up.

It also reminds me of one of my favorite anime series, Ghost in the Shell. Now that I've been given the excuse to go ahead with the sci-fi post that I've been wanting to do for a while, I'm going with it. Given that I like talking about sci-fi, it will be long.

Ghost in the Shell, which came out in 1994 (although there was a brilliant sequel in 2004 and a rather so-so TV series airing on Cartoon Network right now), takes place in dystopian future very similar to that of Snow Crash and Blade Runner. All human beings and robots are connected to a network through their "ghosts," which as the Wikipedia entry puts it:

"In Ghost in the Shell, the word ghost is colloquial slang for an individual's consciousness. In the manga's futuristic society, science has redefined the ghost as the thing that differentiates a human being from a biological robot. Regardless of how much biological material is replaced with electronic or mechanical substitutes, as long as an individual retains their ghost, they retain their humanity and individuality.

The concept of the ghost was borrowed by Masamune Shirow from an essay on structuralism, "The Ghost in the Machine" by Arthur Koestler. The title The Ghost in the Machine itself was originally used by an English philosopher, Gilbert Ryle to mock the paradox of conventional Cartesian dualism and Dualism in general. Koestler, like Ryle, denies Cartesian dualism and locates the origin of human mind in the physical condition of the brain. He argues that the human brain has grown and built upon earlier, more primitive brain structures, the "ghost in the machine", which at times overpower higher logical functions, and are responsible for hate, anger and other such destructive impulses. Shirow denies dualism similarly in his work, but defines the "ghost" more broadly, not only as a physical trait, but as a phase or phenomenon that appears in a system at a certain level of complexity. The brain itself is only part of the whole neural network; if, for example, an organ is removed from a body, the autonomic nerve of the organ and consequently its "ghost" will vanish unless the stimulus of the existence of the organ is perfectly re-produced by a mechanical substitution (this isn't necessarily true, think of pain in phantom limbs). This can be compared, by analogy, to a person born with innate deafness being unable to understand the concept of "hearing" unless taught.

Ghost-dubbing, or duplicating a ghost, is currently an impossibility in the Ghost in the Shell universe. When performed, as a cheap AI substitute in [the sequel] and earlier in the [original] manga, the result is always inferior to the original-which always dies in the process. ...

Cyberbrain warfare is the practice of employing ghost hacking as a means of gaining access to an opponent's cyberbrain, and ultimately, their ghost. A successful cyberhacker can intercept, censor, or augment the sensory information being received by a victim, or even go so far as to destroy or rewrite complete memories. Furthermore, a person's cyberbrain can be directly injured, by making the cyberbrain undergo unaffordable computation and thus overheat. (See Cordwainer Smith's "The Burning of the Brain")

Cyberbrain warfare is portrayed as a natural consequence of the integration of cybernetic and wireless communication technology directly into the human brain. Despite the apparent risks, even the most paranoid characters in the story find the benefits of directly networking their brains to be indispensable.

Apparently, any conduit by which information is absorbed by the brain can be exploited for ghost hacking. Shirow envisions the use of firewalls for protecting the ghost against attack, and multiple layers of encryption."

As the Wikipedia entry states , the "ghost" differentiates humans and machines, as in the future world cybernetic implants have become extensive. The villain in Ghost in the Shell is a figure called "The Puppetmaster," who hacks into "ghosts" and manipulates individuals to carry out terrorist actions for him. For example, a garbageman's "ghost" is hacked and he is manipulated into believing that he has an ex-wife (who he is engaged in a bitter custody battle with) and children. He meets a man at a bar who gives him "ghost-hacking" software, ostensibly for the purpose of getting back at his wife. However, the garbageman in fact is being used as a conduit by the Puppetmaster to hack the brain of a high-ranking minister. The garbageman is being used as a proxy to ensure that the "Puppetmaster" is not caught, as the signal is traced back the garbageman's network access terminal.

The Puppetmaster uses other individuals as puppets to hack the brains of important officials and carry out terrorist attacks. Each time, the puppet is caught, without anything that can implicate or suggest the identity of the mastermind behind it. As it turns out, the Puppetmaster himself is a strong AI program designed by an internal security agency to do corporate espionage and wetworks. When it gained self-awareness by accident, it turned against its creators.

Of course, this scenario is in a highly futuristic sci-fi universe that has little relationship to our own. But it does illuminate the weakness of highly organized and networked systems to one clever actor. For instance, read this Wired Magazine story about a cyberstalker who targeted a popular rock star:

"The stalking started after [hacker Devon Townsend] saw [Linkin Park singer Chester Bennington]'s email address inadvertently CC'd in a mass mailing to promote a tattoo parlor he owned in Tempe. Using Chester's birthday and zip code to access his Mac.com account, she started guessing passwords until she found the right one: his middle name, Charlie.

Townsend suddenly had access to all of her idol's messages. Soon she had [Bennington's wife Talinda's] Yahoo address, too, and after guessing the password, she reset it. From there, her infiltration was a feat of feverish social engineering. As Townsend pored through the Benningtons' email, she began cataloging every detail of their lives: friends, Social Security numbers, photos, plans. Getting Chester's cell phone data was a snap: All she'd needed was his wireless number, his zip code, and the last four digits of his Social Security number to register his Verizon account online and get complete access to records of his calls. Even Townsend herself seemed astonished at how easy it was. When she opened the Verizon account, the user ID she chose was 'ohshititworked.'

Townsend told [investigators] she loved Linkin Park, particularly Chester. She said she wanted to be 'part of what he is.' In some of her emails, Townsend had told the Benningtons that she was trying to shield them from any bad information or emails that may be coming their way. It was classic stalker behavior — introducing duress, then pretending to relieve it in an attempt to appear useful."

In a way, the "Puppet Master" was employing a futuristic version of what Townsend did--manipulated an open network system through a series of proxies, although the difference is that Townsend's proxies were mechanized and the "Puppet Master's" proxies were real human beings.

I do see a possibility of what PurpleSlog is outlining. An individual, given enough resources, could conduct operations behind a wall of deception and misinformation. False-flag attacks, dummy organizations, misinformation, proxies, and information war capabilities could create enough confusion to allow a disciplined actor to decisively shape world events.

However, I see it as very rare--the entry costs to such an effort could only be met by someone extremely wealthy, with an almost supernatural level of intelligence. It seems that it would work best for a state security agency.

Additionally, the stealth aspect of it would not suit most guerrillas and terrorists. Driven by nationalism and religion, they wage a public war directed towards various audiences. While deception is part of this game, I don't think the leader of a group like Al Qaeda would stand to sulk in the shadows, especially given that such groups derive political capital from the symbolism and charisma of their "emirs." Still, it is a danger, especially as we move closer and closer to the world envisioned in Ghost in the Shell.

Crossposted to the Dreaming 5GW Blorum.

UPDATE:

While we're talking about 5GW, more musings on the subject can be found here.